NBA games

POR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
107–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27222632107
CHI29253521110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 39 30 3 9
Deandre Ayton S 37 25 15 1
Scoot Henderson S 30 14 5 5
Duop Reath 17 14 1 0
Dalano Banton 33 11 6 0
Kris Murray S 27 10 1 1
Jabari Walker 33 3 10 4
Toumani Camara S 15 0 1 1
Rayan Rupert 4 0 1 0
Matisse Thybulle 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 28 5 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 23 1 10
Nikola Vucevic S 35 22 9 0
Andre Drummond 14 9 11 0
Onuralp Bitim 26 9 4 1
Torrey Craig S 24 6 2 2
Alex Caruso S 31 5 4 4
Dalen Terry 15 5 3 2
Jevon Carter 17 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Kris Murray makes two point shot (Scoot Henderson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
14%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
11%
5 Dalano Banton POR
10%
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
7 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Kris Murray POR
7%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
54%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.4 5.6 5.4
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.6 4.1 7.1
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.0 10.7 3.7
4 Deandre Ayton POR 21.8 12.7 2.4
5 Dalano Banton POR 19.4 4.9 4.0
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.0 4.1 5.7
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.9 3.3 5.4
8 Alex Caruso CHI 11.2 3.8 4.2
9 Toumani Camara POR 10.2 5.6 1.9
10 Kris Murray POR 9.6 4.6 2.4
11 Duop Reath POR 9.4 3.2 1.2
12 Jabari Walker POR 9.1 6.1 1.3
13 Matisse Thybulle POR 8.6 3.7 2.1
14 Andre Drummond CHI 7.8 8.5 0.9
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.1 3.2 1.4
16 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.9 2.4 1.1
17 Jevon Carter CHI 4.7 1.4 1.1
18 Rayan Rupert POR 3.8 1.8 1.1
19 Andrew Funk CHI 3.8 1.2 0.6
20 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.5 2.3 0.5
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 1.6 1.1
22 Ibou Badji POR 2.7 2.0 0.6
23 Justin Minaya POR 2.6 1.2 0.6
24 Moses Brown POR 2.3 3.1 0.3
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.3 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.