NBA games

MIA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
91–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2326162691
PHI3120281998

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHI
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 32 20 13 6
Terry Rozier S 34 20 8 1
Caleb Martin 35 13 4 2
Thomas Bryant 16 11 2 1
Haywood Highsmith S 26 11 5 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 35 9 9 4
Duncan Robinson S 24 3 4 0
Patty Mills 22 3 2 3
Delon Wright 16 1 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 30 8 10
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 22 11 3
Kyle Lowry S 35 16 4 1
Buddy Hield 24 12 2 1
Mo Bamba S 19 8 4 3
Paul Reed 22 4 7 1
Cameron Payne 16 3 2 3
Nicolas Batum S 38 2 8 1
KJ Martin 7 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Mo Bamba assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
7%
7 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
9 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
37%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.4 4.1 5.1
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.5 5.8 5.8
3 Terry Rozier MIA 19.1 4.6 5.7
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.1 10.3 3.1
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.8 5.6 2.4
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.1 3.8 3.6
7 Tobias Harris PHI 15.8 6.7 2.2
8 Caleb Martin MIA 11.8 5.3 1.9
9 Buddy Hield PHI 11.4 3.2 3.3
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.8 4.3 2.5
11 Paul Reed PHI 10.3 7.1 1.7
12 Cameron Payne PHI 9.9 2.0 2.9
13 Kyle Lowry PHI 9.1 3.0 4.8
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.6 4.6 1.9
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.0 3.6 1.6
16 Mo Bamba PHI 5.5 4.1 1.0
17 Jamal Cain MIA 4.3 2.0 0.5
18 KJ Martin PHI 4.2 2.7 0.9
19 Delon Wright MIA 4.1 1.7 1.3
20 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.0 2.0 0.6
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.6 2.6 0.6
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.6 1.5 0.4
23 Patty Mills MIA 3.5 1.8 0.8
24 Terquavion Smith PHI 2.9 0.5 0.7
25 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.2 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.