NBA games

DET @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
94–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2818202894
BOS31283327119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BOS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 29 21 5 5
James Wiseman 26 12 5 3
Malachi Flynn 18 11 2 1
Tosan Evbuomwan 18 11 2 0
Stanley Umude S 34 10 6 1
Marcus Sasser S 34 8 4 6
Jalen Duren S 22 8 9 0
Isaiah Stewart S 17 5 5 1
Evan Fournier 22 3 1 4
Taj Gibson 11 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 30 31 7 3
Payton Pritchard S 38 23 2 7
Derrick White S 37 22 10 10
Kristaps Porzingis S 21 20 8 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 24 6 2 2
Jaden Springer 22 6 4 4
Luke Kornet S 28 4 10 0
Oshae Brissett 19 3 4 0
Xavier Tillman 17 2 4 1
Jordan Walsh 4 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
23%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Oshae Brissett BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 Simone Fontecchio DET
7%
10 Stanley Umude DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
45%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.4 5.9 4.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.6 4.7 8.0
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.6 6.8 2.1
4 Jaden Ivey DET 17.8 3.6 4.2
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.0 11.1 2.7
6 Simone Fontecchio DET 14.7 4.8 1.8
7 Derrick White BOS 12.1 5.6 5.6
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.7 6.1 1.3
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.0 3.2 3.1
10 James Wiseman DET 6.8 6.4 1.0
11 Marcus Sasser DET 6.6 2.4 3.2
12 Luke Kornet BOS 6.2 4.0 1.1
13 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.9 3.5 1.1
14 Evan Fournier DET 5.8 1.7 1.3
15 Stanley Umude DET 4.6 2.3 0.7
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.3 1.7 1.0
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.2 3.3 0.6
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.0 2.8 1.0
19 Malachi Flynn DET 3.3 1.2 0.8
20 Taj Gibson DET 3.1 2.4 0.8
21 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 3.1 2.1 0.6
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.1 1.8 0.7
23 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.6 1.4 0.6
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 2.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.