NBA games

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
108–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25293618108
IND34202920103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home IND
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 34 23 9 1
Caris LeVert S 38 23 8 11
Marcus Morris Sr. 20 14 4 0
Georges Niang S 33 13 2 1
Darius Garland S 36 13 6 7
Sam Merrill 25 11 1 1
Isaac Okoro S 33 9 3 2
Tristan Thompson 14 2 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 7 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 32 19 12 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 14 6 12
T.J. McConnell 21 14 3 4
Myles Turner S 29 12 3 1
Jalen Smith 19 11 8 1
Obi Toppin 20 10 8 2
Andrew Nembhard S 32 9 0 4
Aaron Nesmith S 35 9 4 2
Ben Sheppard 20 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Georges Niang · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Georges Niang makes driving layup (Isaac Okoro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
12%
5 Isaac Okoro CLE
9%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Dean Wade CLE
8%
9 Darius Garland CLE
8%
10 Georges Niang CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 23.1 3.5 6.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.2 9.0 4.0
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.7 4.7 9.5
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.2 10.9 2.5
5 Myles Turner IND 16.4 7.2 1.5
6 Caris LeVert CLE 14.4 5.4 7.8
7 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.3 4.0 2.3
8 T.J. McConnell IND 12.2 3.7 4.7
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 3.7 1.6
10 Georges Niang CLE 10.0 3.5 1.9
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.0 2.9 2.9
12 Sam Merrill CLE 8.4 2.8 2.2
13 Marcus Morris Sr. CLE 8.3 3.5 1.1
14 Jalen Smith IND 8.2 5.2 1.3
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.0 3.9 1.2
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.0 4.4 0.8
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.7 2.2 1.1
18 Ty Jerome CLE 6.5 2.2 3.5
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.4 4.7 1.6
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.0 2.0 1.4
21 Dean Wade CLE 4.2 2.7 0.7
22 Quenton Jackson IND 4.2 1.4 1.0
23 Damian Jones CLE 3.7 2.9 0.7
24 Jarace Walker IND 3.4 2.3 0.9
25 Isaiah Wong IND 2.6 1.2 0.9
26 Kendall Brown IND 2.4 1.0 0.6
27 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.