NBA games

ATL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL31302722110
LAC2915183193

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home LAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 34 21 2 10
De'Andre Hunter 24 20 2 2
Jalen Johnson S 36 18 12 6
Clint Capela S 26 15 13 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 30 11 5 4
Wesley Matthews 14 6 1 0
Garrison Mathews 13 6 0 0
Bruno Fernando 22 6 7 1
Vit Krejci S 25 5 2 3
Trent Forrest 16 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 28 2 2
Paul George S 35 26 6 1
James Harden S 36 9 6 9
Terance Mann S 32 7 4 0
Ivica Zubac S 23 6 6 1
Mason Plumlee 7 5 2 1
Xavier Moon 2 5 1 1
P.J. Tucker 21 3 4 0
Bones Hyland 11 2 1 1
Amir Coffey 22 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 17-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
9%
2 James Harden LAC
9%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
4 Paul George LAC
8%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
7 Dejounte Murray ATL
8%
8 Ivica Zubac LAC
8%
9 Clint Capela ATL
7%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.0 5.1 8.3
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.5 6.2 4.0
3 Paul George LAC 21.9 4.9 4.4
4 Trae Young ATL 20.6 2.6 11.1
5 James Harden LAC 20.4 4.8 8.9
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.7 8.2 3.6
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.9 4.1 4.6
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.2 3.5 1.7
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.3 7.7 1.5
10 Clint Capela ATL 11.1 9.9 1.7
11 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.7 7.5 1.9
12 Terance Mann LAC 10.2 3.3 1.2
13 Amir Coffey LAC 6.9 2.8 1.7
14 Bones Hyland LAC 6.9 1.8 3.3
15 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.1 5.8 1.3
16 Daniel Theis LAC 5.9 4.6 1.2
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.0 2.1 0.8
18 Xavier Moon LAC 4.7 1.9 1.7
19 Vit Krejci ATL 4.3 1.4 1.6
20 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.0 4.2 1.2
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.7 1.7 0.7
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.3 0.9
23 Brandon Boston LAC 3.1 1.4 0.5
24 Trent Forrest ATL 2.9 1.4 1.9
25 Jordan Miller LAC 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 Kobe Brown LAC 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.