NBA games

BKN @ SA

NBA Moody Center ·Final
115–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BKN292727275115
SA2530253012122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home SA
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 39 31 3 5
Dennis Schroder S 42 19 3 7
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 15 3 2
Mikal Bridges S 40 14 7 5
Cameron Johnson 27 12 5 2
Nic Claxton S 32 11 14 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 38 8 7 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 17 5 3 4
Lonnie Walker IV 11 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 36 33 15 7
Devin Vassell S 44 25 2 8
Keldon Johnson 34 24 5 0
Tre Jones S 36 11 4 7
Cedi Osman 14 10 3 0
Malaki Branham 16 7 3 2
Zach Collins 17 6 7 2
Jeremy Sochan S 42 4 9 4
Blake Wesley 10 2 1 0
Julian Champagnie S 16 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 5-foot two point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
15%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
3 Devin Vassell SA
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
6 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
7 Dennis Schroder BKN
9%
8 Tre Jones SA
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.3 11.8 4.8
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.4 4.2 4.0
3 Devin Vassell SA 21.1 4.9 5.1
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 20.2 3.4 6.7
5 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.0 4.4 4.3
6 Keldon Johnson SA 15.1 4.4 2.4
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.9 9.0 2.6
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.8 3.3 2.2
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.4 6.3 2.8
10 Malaki Branham SA 12.0 2.3 2.1
11 Tre Jones SA 11.1 4.2 6.5
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.9 4.1 2.3
13 Zach Collins SA 10.7 5.1 2.2
14 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.1 2.4 1.1
15 Julian Champagnie SA 7.6 3.2 1.8
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 7.4 2.5 3.0
17 Dominick Barlow SA 6.2 4.2 1.1
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.7 5.0 1.5
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.2 3.1 1.2
20 Blake Wesley SA 5.2 1.9 2.8
21 Trendon Watford BKN 4.8 2.6 0.7
22 Noah Clowney BKN 3.7 1.9 0.9
23 Cedi Osman SA 3.1 1.5 1.3
24 Devonte' Graham SA 2.8 1.2 0.4
25 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 2.5 1.6 0.6
26 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.3 1.5 0.6
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 1.8 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.