NBA games

BOS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
130–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS45362722130
WSH27262526104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home WSH
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 27 30 6 6
Sam Hauser S 23 30 6 1
Al Horford S 23 14 4 2
Luke Kornet 20 14 6 1
Payton Pritchard 35 14 5 13
Svi Mykhailiuk 23 9 5 2
Oshae Brissett S 29 7 4 2
Jrue Holiday S 22 7 1 3
Xavier Tillman 15 3 2 0
Jaden Springer 16 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 23 31 2 4
Justin Champagnie S 36 14 8 1
Anthony Gill 25 13 4 3
Jules Bernard 24 12 4 1
Richaun Holmes S 19 8 4 1
Jared Butler 22 8 3 6
Johnny Davis 22 8 4 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 32 6 7 4
Corey Kispert S 21 4 2 1
Eugene Omoruyi 15 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
18%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
3 Richaun Holmes WSH
12%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
5 Corey Kispert WSH
11%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
8 Al Horford BOS
9%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
10 Oshae Brissett BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.6 6.0 4.1
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.4 6.9 5.8
3 Jordan Poole WSH 19.7 3.7 5.4
4 Corey Kispert WSH 14.3 3.6 2.5
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.1 4.0 5.9
6 Al Horford BOS 10.5 5.7 1.9
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.4 3.8 1.8
8 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 3.7 1.1
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.5 3.1 2.2
10 Xavier Tillman BOS 6.2 4.1 1.2
11 Luke Kornet BOS 6.0 4.6 1.3
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.8 3.5 1.1
13 Richaun Holmes WSH 5.5 3.9 0.7
14 Jared Butler WSH 4.1 1.4 2.0
15 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 4.1 0.4
16 Johnny Davis WSH 3.7 1.8 0.8
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.6 2.7 1.1
18 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.6 1.8 0.6
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.5 1.1 0.7
20 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.5 2.6 0.7
21 Jules Bernard WSH 3.1 1.3 0.7
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.0 1.9 0.7
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.