NBA games

TOR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
96–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2423262396
ORL26263524111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ORL
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Nwora 25 18 7 1
Gary Trent Jr. S 31 15 4 3
Bruce Brown 23 12 0 4
Immanuel Quickley S 31 12 7 5
Kelly Olynyk S 26 11 4 3
Gradey Dick S 27 10 0 1
Ochai Agbaji S 31 9 7 1
Jahmi'us Ramsey 19 5 1 2
Jontay Porter 22 4 7 3
Javon Freeman-Liberty 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 29 6 5
Franz Wagner S 31 22 8 4
Moritz Wagner 18 14 4 1
Jalen Suggs S 20 10 2 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 9 3 3
Gary Harris S 27 7 2 1
Cole Anthony 25 6 5 2
Joe Ingles 13 5 2 2
Markelle Fultz 15 4 5 2
Caleb Houstan 15 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
12%
4 Gary Harris ORL
8%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
8 Kelly Olynyk TOR
8%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.3 6.9 6.5
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.6 5.3 7.9
3 Franz Wagner ORL 18.5 5.9 4.1
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 15.8 3.9 1.8
5 Kelly Olynyk TOR 14.3 5.3 4.3
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.9 8.9 2.3
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.9 3.6 4.0
8 Cole Anthony ORL 10.7 3.8 2.4
9 Bruce Brown TOR 10.1 3.9 2.8
10 Gary Harris ORL 10.0 2.3 1.7
11 Gradey Dick TOR 9.8 3.0 1.5
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.0 4.3 1.5
13 Markelle Fultz ORL 7.3 4.2 1.8
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.1 2.9 1.1
15 Jordan Nwora TOR 5.8 2.8 0.7
16 Joe Ingles ORL 5.5 1.7 2.7
17 Anthony Black ORL 5.5 2.9 1.2
18 Jahmi'us Ramsey TOR 5.3 4.0 0.7
19 Jontay Porter TOR 5.2 2.8 2.0
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.9 2.1 0.9
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.9 2.0 0.8
22 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 3.8 1.8 0.7
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.3 1.1 0.7
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.0 2.6 0.9
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.4 0.9 0.6
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.4 0.9 0.7
27 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.