NBA games

DEN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
105–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34271826105
DAL30282623107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DAL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 23 4 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 20 7 3
Nikola Jokic S 39 16 11 7
Aaron Gordon S 34 11 8 4
Christian Braun 19 10 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 10 3 2
Reggie Jackson 13 8 0 2
Zeke Nnaji 9 4 1 0
Peyton Watson 14 3 2 0
Justin Holiday 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 37 10 3
Kyrie Irving S 40 24 7 9
Dereck Lively II 23 14 8 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 9 8 1
Daniel Gafford S 24 8 6 1
Dante Exum 18 8 3 1
P.J. Washington S 31 4 11 3
Jaden Hardy 4 2 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 15 1 3 1
Maxi Kleber 21 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 6-foot two point shot (P.J. Washington assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Dante Exum DAL
6%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.9 9.5 9.8
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.2 11.8 8.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.5 4.7 7.5
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.1 4.6 5.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 6.5 2.0
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.4 5.8 4.1
7 P.J. Washington DAL 11.8 5.4 1.5
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.1 2.7 3.0
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.0 7.0 1.0
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.6 2.5 1.7
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.8 4.4 0.8
12 Christian Braun DEN 6.9 3.5 1.4
13 Peyton Watson DEN 6.9 3.5 1.3
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.7 2.3 0.9
15 Dante Exum DAL 6.1 2.0 2.9
16 Reggie Jackson DEN 5.9 1.5 1.8
17 Justin Holiday DEN 5.0 1.6 1.4
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 1.1 1.0
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.3 2.9 1.1
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.3 3.5 0.5
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 2.6 0.6
22 Jay Huff DEN 2.9 1.4 0.6
23 Julian Strawther DEN 2.7 1.3 0.9
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.5 1.1 0.4
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.2 0.8 0.3
26 Dwight Powell DAL 2.0 1.5 0.6
27 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.