NBA games

MIA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
104–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA21391925104
DET23272625101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DET
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 35 30 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 38 20 17 3
Terry Rozier S 36 17 6 9
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 35 15 3 4
Caleb Martin 31 10 7 0
Delon Wright 21 6 3 0
Haywood Highsmith S 25 3 2 1
Thomas Bryant 10 2 4 1
Patty Mills 10 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Fournier 31 18 4 1
Cade Cunningham S 32 17 4 9
Simone Fontecchio S 35 13 8 2
Isaiah Stewart S 36 12 6 1
Jalen Duren S 29 11 10 1
Jaden Ivey S 24 10 1 2
Stanley Umude 19 9 2 1
Marcus Sasser 18 7 3 6
James Wiseman 16 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes hook shot (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
8 Simone Fontecchio DET
7%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
44%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.7 4.8 8.5
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.6 5.7 6.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.1 10.0 3.6
4 Terry Rozier MIA 18.9 4.6 5.4
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.9 3.6 4.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.3 11.2 3.3
7 Simone Fontecchio DET 14.9 4.4 1.9
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.6 3.6 4.1
9 Caleb Martin MIA 12.8 4.8 2.0
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.9 4.6 2.5
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.8 5.7 1.4
12 James Wiseman DET 6.9 6.4 1.0
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.6 3.7 1.7
14 Marcus Sasser DET 6.6 2.3 3.2
15 Evan Fournier DET 5.4 1.6 1.4
16 Jamal Cain MIA 5.1 2.3 0.6
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 4.1 2.0 0.6
18 Stanley Umude DET 4.0 2.4 0.7
19 Malachi Flynn DET 3.9 1.4 1.0
20 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 3.7 2.3 0.7
21 Patty Mills MIA 3.6 1.8 0.8
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.5 2.4 0.6
23 Taj Gibson DET 3.0 2.3 0.9
24 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.6 1.4 0.7
25 Delon Wright MIA 2.4 0.9 1.2
26 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.