NBA games

PHX @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
129–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX36243435129
MIL39432731140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 37 28 4 7
Grayson Allen S 39 25 3 8
Devin Booker S 40 23 9 6
Royce O'Neale 26 16 5 3
Kevin Durant S 41 11 9 4
Eric Gordon 22 10 1 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 20 8 6 6
Drew Eubanks 5 4 1 0
Bol Bol 5 2 1 0
David Roddy 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 39 31 5 16
Bobby Portis 30 31 10 2
Khris Middleton S 25 22 3 7
Jae Crowder S 32 18 2 0
Malik Beasley S 29 17 3 3
Brook Lopez S 18 10 7 3
AJ Green 15 5 1 0
Pat Connaughton 22 3 2 0
Patrick Beverley 29 3 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 15-foot jumper (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
15%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Patrick Beverley MIL
6%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
23%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.8 6.5 4.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 23.4 4.5 6.2
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.3 4.7 7.5
4 Bradley Beal PHX 18.9 4.2 5.4
5 Khris Middleton MIL 17.3 4.3 5.3
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.9 7.5 1.9
7 Grayson Allen PHX 14.5 3.4 2.1
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.8 10.1 5.7
9 Malik Beasley MIL 10.5 3.2 1.8
10 Eric Gordon PHX 9.8 2.2 1.8
11 Brook Lopez MIL 9.6 4.5 1.8
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.3 5.4 3.6
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 8.7 3.1 1.8
14 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.6 3.6 1.7
15 Jae Crowder MIL 6.0 3.1 1.3
16 Bol Bol PHX 5.8 3.7 0.6
17 Thaddeus Young PHX 5.8 4.1 1.6
18 AJ Green MIL 5.5 1.7 0.9
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.5 4.5 0.7
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.1 1.5 1.1
21 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.8 1.3 1.3
22 Ish Wainright PHX 3.4 1.7 0.6
23 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.2 1.4 0.8
24 Nassir Little PHX 2.8 1.5 0.6
25 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.8 2.0 0.5
26 David Roddy PHX 2.6 1.2 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.7 0.5
28 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.8 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.