NBA games

NY @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
98–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2132222398
SAC2226261791

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SAC
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 42 4 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 15 2 2
Alec Burks 18 12 3 2
Bojan Bogdanovic 24 9 4 1
Josh Hart S 39 9 13 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 7 14 3
OG Anunoby S 33 2 6 2
Precious Achiuwa 20 2 5 4
Miles McBride 12 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 40 21 14 2
De'Aaron Fox S 36 20 7 9
Malik Monk 28 18 3 4
Harrison Barnes S 36 16 6 3
Keegan Murray S 34 11 6 1
Keon Ellis 29 5 3 0
Alex Len 7 0 1 0
Kevin Huerter S 16 0 1 2
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0
Davion Mitchell 12 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 4-foot driving dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donte DiVincenzo NY
14%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
9%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
55%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 28.6 5.8 7.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 24.9 3.4 6.6
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.2 14.5 7.7
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.4 4.0 5.9
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.9 4.6 3.9
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.0 4.8 2.2
7 Josh Hart NY 13.5 10.9 5.1
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.2 5.4 1.7
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.9 2.4 1.4
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.8 7.8 1.7
11 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 10.0 2.4 1.6
12 Miles McBride NY 10.0 2.3 2.6
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.3 3.2 2.4
14 Mamadi Diakite NY 7.2 2.8 0.7
15 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 6.4 5.9 2.6
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.3 1.5 1.6
17 Alec Burks NY 5.2 1.6 0.8
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.6 2.3 0.6
19 Jericho Sims NY 4.5 5.4 1.0
20 Keon Ellis SAC 4.4 1.9 1.2
21 Shake Milton NY 3.4 2.0 0.8
22 Alex Len SAC 2.9 2.4 0.5
23 JaVale McGee SAC 2.9 2.4 0.3
24 Jordan Ford SAC 2.9 1.0 0.6
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.0 1.0 0.5
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.8 1.1 0.8
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.4 1.1 0.4
28 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.