NBA games

MIN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
119–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN19293437119
UTAH19292428100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home UTAH
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 31 10 5
Mike Conley S 30 25 2 2
Naz Reid S 35 22 12 5
Luka Garza 13 9 3 0
Jaden McDaniels S 22 8 1 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 8 5 2
Josh Minott 2 5 0 0
Kyle Anderson S 31 4 5 9
Jordan McLaughlin 16 3 2 4
T.J. Warren 16 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 31 22 2 10
Keyonte George S 30 18 3 2
Taylor Hendricks S 33 15 10 1
Omer Yurtseven 18 14 5 0
Brice Sensabaugh S 27 8 7 2
Johnny Juzang 22 8 4 0
Walker Kessler S 30 7 10 0
Kris Dunn S 24 4 3 3
Micah Potter 13 2 3 0
Jason Preston 13 2 4 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
4 Kyle Anderson MIN
11%
5 Mike Conley MIN
11%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Luka Samanic UTAH
10%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
9%
9 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
9%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.0 5.2 4.7
2 Keyonte George UTAH 21.1 3.4 5.5
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.1 3.3 5.9
4 Naz Reid MIN 16.2 6.5 2.3
5 Mike Conley MIN 12.6 3.3 5.1
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.2 3.2 2.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.6 4.3 2.0
8 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.9 3.9 4.7
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.4 8.3 1.3
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.2 2.9 1.6
11 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 7.2 6.1 0.9
12 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.6 2.5 2.2
13 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.9 2.4 2.3
14 T.J. Warren MIN 5.1 1.8 0.9
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 5.0 1.6 0.9
16 Monte Morris MIN 4.8 1.2 2.4
17 Micah Potter UTAH 4.5 2.1 0.5
18 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 2.6 0.7
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.6 1.6 1.7
20 Luka Garza MIN 2.9 0.9 0.5
21 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.9 2.0 0.5
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 1.4 0.6
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.2 1.0 0.6
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.0 2.0 0.3
25 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.0 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.