NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
128–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS30373526128
LAL36302728121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 31 6 5
Klay Thompson 30 26 4 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 31 23 2 4
Andrew Wiggins S 30 16 6 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 21 10 3 4
Chris Paul 19 8 6 4
Draymond Green S 34 6 12 13
Brandin Podziemski S 35 5 5 3
Gary Payton II 7 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 38 40 8 9
D'Angelo Russell S 40 23 3 13
Rui Hachimura S 30 14 4 2
Austin Reaves S 34 11 3 3
Anthony Davis S 12 8 4 2
Taurean Prince 30 8 2 3
Jaxson Hayes 28 7 12 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 19 7 2 0
Max Christie 10 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 24-foot three pointer (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
15%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
10%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
5 Klay Thompson GS
8%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
7 LeBron James LAL
7%
8 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
25%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.4 6.9 9.1
2 Anthony Davis LAL 22.2 12.0 3.2
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.7 5.9 3.0
4 Stephen Curry GS 21.2 4.2 5.0
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.7 3.9 5.9
6 Austin Reaves LAL 18.6 4.8 6.6
7 Klay Thompson GS 16.6 3.3 2.1
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.7 4.0 1.6
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.2 4.1 2.4
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.8 5.5 4.3
11 Chris Paul GS 10.8 4.1 6.0
12 Draymond Green GS 8.9 7.7 5.5
13 Moses Moody GS 8.2 3.9 0.9
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.0 5.3 1.6
15 Taurean Prince LAL 6.2 3.0 1.4
16 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 6.2 2.0 2.2
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.0 3.5 0.6
18 Gary Payton II GS 4.9 2.7 1.2
19 Lester Quinones GS 4.2 1.9 0.7
20 Max Christie LAL 3.9 1.8 1.2
21 Dario Saric GS 3.2 1.7 1.7
22 Harry Giles III LAL 2.9 1.6 0.7
23 Kevon Looney GS 2.7 2.9 1.0
24 Jerome Robinson GS 2.5 1.0 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.4 1.1 0.6
26 Skylar Mays LAL 2.4 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.