NBA games

OKC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
118–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29273527118
MEM27272434112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MEM
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 35 23 7 6
Chet Holmgren S 32 22 11 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 20 7 3
Josh Giddey S 19 13 6 2
Luguentz Dort S 31 12 5 4
Isaiah Joe 20 10 2 1
Gordon Hayward 14 6 0 1
Kenrich Williams 13 6 3 1
Cason Wallace 24 4 2 4
Aaron Wiggins 8 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 32 22 3 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 36 19 6 7
GG Jackson S 35 19 4 4
Santi Aldama S 39 16 6 4
Jake LaRavia 24 14 4 0
Luke Kennard S 30 9 3 9
John Konchar 25 9 2 3
DeJon Jarreau 5 2 4 0
Wenyen Gabriel 14 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
5 GG Jackson MEM
8%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
8 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
6%
10 Josh Giddey OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
49%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.6 6.0 5.9
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.5 6.0 3.3
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.2 4.6 6.1
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.2 4.3 4.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.7 8.5 3.0
6 GG Jackson MEM 15.1 4.0 1.6
7 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 14.3 6.2 5.9
8 Josh Giddey OKC 13.2 6.0 4.2
9 Luke Kennard MEM 13.1 2.8 3.6
10 Santi Aldama MEM 12.3 5.8 2.2
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 12.3 4.8 2.0
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 3.2 1.7
13 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.3 4.6 1.1
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.9 3.6 1.8
15 John Konchar MEM 8.2 5.8 2.5
16 DeJon Jarreau MEM 7.4 5.9 4.7
17 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.6 1.6
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.1 2.3 1.0
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.6 2.4 0.9
20 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.4 2.4 2.0
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 3.2 1.4
22 Wenyen Gabriel MEM 3.7 3.6 0.8
23 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.6 2.6 1.1
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.7 1.3 0.5
25 Mike Muscala OKC 2.6 1.2 0.5
26 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.6 3.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.