NBA games

WSH @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
98–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH1926242998
CHI32352832127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert S 29 16 3 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 30 15 8 2
Jordan Poole S 23 13 0 8
Justin Champagnie 25 11 7 3
Kyle Kuzma S 29 11 5 4
Richaun Holmes S 26 7 4 1
Eugene Omoruyi 17 7 2 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 16 6 1 2
Johnny Davis 15 5 0 3
Jared Butler 22 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 41 34 3 9
Nikola Vucevic S 31 29 13 2
Alex Caruso S 34 16 5 5
DeMar DeRozan S 35 13 4 6
Andre Drummond 15 13 9 1
Dalen Terry 19 6 5 3
Onuralp Bitim 24 6 6 2
Torrey Craig S 18 4 1 2
Terry Taylor 2 2 1 0
Adama Sanogo 1 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Caruso · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Alex Caruso makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
5 Alex Caruso CHI
10%
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
7 Richaun Holmes WSH
9%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
8%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
17%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 27.7 5.7 5.5
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.3 7.2 5.2
3 Jordan Poole WSH 22.1 4.0 5.5
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.1 10.6 3.9
5 Deni Avdija WSH 19.4 9.2 3.4
6 Corey Kispert WSH 15.6 3.5 2.6
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.5 4.4 5.5
8 Alex Caruso CHI 10.9 3.8 4.1
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.1 3.7 1.9
10 Andre Drummond CHI 9.1 9.3 1.0
11 Torrey Craig CHI 6.6 3.7 1.5
12 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.8 2.0 1.1
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.4 3.0 0.9
14 Jevon Carter CHI 5.3 1.6 1.2
15 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.3 3.3 0.5
16 Jared Butler WSH 4.3 1.3 2.1
17 Adama Sanogo CHI 4.1 3.0 0.6
18 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.6 1.9 0.7
19 Johnny Davis WSH 3.5 1.8 0.7
20 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.2 2.4 0.7
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 1.8 1.1
22 Jules Bernard WSH 3.1 1.3 0.8
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.8 1.6 0.7
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.