NBA games

POR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
107–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR33352415107
NO36372924126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NO
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton S 42 28 5 6
Anfernee Simons S 36 25 4 8
Deandre Ayton S 38 20 8 2
Scoot Henderson 24 11 2 2
Toumani Camara S 34 11 6 1
Jabari Walker 17 10 5 0
Rayan Rupert 12 2 1 0
Justin Minaya 2 0 0 0
Ibou Badji 2 0 0 0
Kris Murray S 26 0 5 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 37 30 2 8
Zion Williamson S 34 26 10 3
Brandon Ingram S 35 22 7 2
Trey Murphy III S 35 20 6 5
Naji Marshall 23 11 5 2
Jose Alvarado 31 7 1 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 21 6 5 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 19 4 3 5
Jordan Hawkins 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
14%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
5 CJ McCollum NO
9%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
7 Dalano Banton POR
8%
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
9 Kris Murray POR
6%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.3 7.5 5.9
2 Anfernee Simons POR 22.9 4.1 6.2
3 Brandon Ingram NO 21.9 5.4 6.5
4 Deandre Ayton POR 20.8 12.5 2.2
5 Trey Murphy III NO 17.3 5.3 2.8
6 Scoot Henderson POR 17.2 3.3 5.4
7 CJ McCollum NO 16.2 4.2 3.0
8 Dalano Banton POR 15.8 4.5 3.2
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.1 3.4 2.6
10 Toumani Camara POR 9.5 5.5 2.0
11 Duop Reath POR 9.5 3.5 1.2
12 Kris Murray POR 9.3 4.4 2.2
13 Jonas Valanciunas NO 7.9 8.2 1.2
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.3 2.4 2.1
15 Jabari Walker POR 7.1 5.6 1.0
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.7 3.7 2.1
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.9 1.7 0.7
18 Matt Ryan NO 4.8 1.5 0.7
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 1.6 0.7
20 Rayan Rupert POR 2.8 1.4 0.8
21 Justin Minaya POR 2.6 1.5 0.7
22 Moses Brown POR 2.2 3.3 0.3
23 Ibou Badji POR 1.3 1.5 0.4
24 Cody Zeller NO 1.2 2.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.