NBA games

CHA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
98–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2423242798
PHI27262630109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home PHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Mann S 37 21 8 6
Davis Bertans 31 16 1 1
Grant Williams 27 14 3 1
Miles Bridges S 39 14 9 6
Vasilije Micic S 33 11 2 4
Nick Richards S 30 11 11 0
Brandon Miller S 15 6 2 1
Aleksej Pokusevski 21 5 3 2
Nick Smith Jr. 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 30 3 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 22 3 1
Buddy Hield 20 14 2 2
Paul Reed 20 11 8 1
Cameron Payne 19 10 0 4
Nicolas Batum S 37 8 8 4
KJ Martin 13 6 3 2
Kyle Lowry S 29 5 6 7
Mo Bamba S 28 3 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Vasilije Micic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Vasilije Micic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
16%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
15%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Nick Richards CHA
11%
6 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
7 Mo Bamba PHI
9%
8 Tre Mann CHA
8%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
8%
10 Cameron Payne PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
37%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.6 4.4 5.3
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.3 7.9 3.6
3 Brandon Miller CHA 18.3 5.3 3.2
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.8 5.8 2.5
5 Vasilije Micic CHA 14.7 2.9 5.7
6 Grant Williams CHA 14.7 5.9 3.1
7 Tre Mann CHA 12.3 4.3 3.6
8 Buddy Hield PHI 11.4 3.3 3.3
9 Paul Reed PHI 10.8 7.6 1.8
10 Cameron Payne PHI 10.6 2.3 2.7
11 Nick Richards CHA 10.5 9.3 1.0
12 Kyle Lowry PHI 10.0 3.1 4.9
13 Davis Bertans CHA 8.9 2.9 1.5
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.4 4.4 1.8
15 Mo Bamba PHI 5.3 4.1 1.0
16 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.2 1.5 1.4
17 KJ Martin PHI 4.9 3.1 1.0
18 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.5 1.4 1.6
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.2 1.8 0.6
20 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 3.9 2.3 1.0
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.4 1.8 0.6
22 JT Thor CHA 3.0 1.8 0.7
23 Amari Bailey CHA 2.4 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.