NBA games

BKN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
100–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN30272122100
IND25342735121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home IND
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 32 22 8 2
Cameron Johnson 27 14 4 2
Dennis Schroder S 31 13 2 5
Trendon Watford 19 12 0 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 26 12 4 0
Nic Claxton S 25 9 10 1
Mikal Bridges S 29 7 7 4
Dennis Smith Jr. 11 4 0 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 3 7 1
Lonnie Walker IV 14 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 28 28 11 4
Aaron Nesmith S 26 16 4 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 14 7 4
T.J. McConnell 20 13 5 1
Myles Turner S 25 11 7 1
Ben Sheppard 24 11 1 2
Jalen Smith 19 9 5 0
Andrew Nembhard S 32 7 2 3
Obi Toppin 18 6 3 2
Isaiah Jackson 3 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Dennis Schroder BKN
9%
6 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
20%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 21.8 4.0 3.6
2 Dennis Schroder BKN 20.2 3.5 6.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.0 8.2 3.4
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.1 4.2 3.9
5 Myles Turner IND 17.7 7.0 1.5
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.0 4.4 9.3
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.8 8.6 2.6
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.9 3.2 2.1
9 T.J. McConnell IND 11.7 3.2 4.7
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.0 3.2 1.4
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.9 4.6 2.5
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.3 2.9 2.6
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.1 5.2 1.2
14 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.9 2.4 1.1
15 Obi Toppin IND 7.9 3.6 1.3
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.4 2.6 2.9
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.4 0.9
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.6 3.5 0.5
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.3 4.5 1.4
20 Quenton Jackson IND 4.7 1.5 1.2
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.6 2.9 1.1
22 Trendon Watford BKN 3.9 2.3 0.5
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.2 2.1 0.8
24 Noah Clowney BKN 2.7 1.6 0.6
25 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 2.5 1.4 0.5
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.0 0.4 0.2
27 James Johnson IND 0.9 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.