NBA games

CLE @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
103–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE29251930103
HOU34362819117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home HOU
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caris LeVert 32 21 3 7
Georges Niang S 29 14 5 2
Donovan Mitchell S 26 13 3 2
Darius Garland S 33 12 5 4
Sam Merrill 28 11 8 2
Jarrett Allen S 26 10 7 0
Isaac Okoro S 33 10 2 1
Tristan Thompson 15 5 5 1
Craig Porter Jr. 6 4 1 2
Damian Jones 11 3 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 33 26 11 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 20 7 2
Amen Thompson S 26 18 8 0
Fred VanVleet S 35 13 5 16
Dillon Brooks S 26 12 3 2
Jeff Green 26 9 4 1
Jae'Sean Tate 13 8 1 0
Jock Landale 17 6 3 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 16 3 5 0
Aaron Holiday 12 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
18%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.8 5.4 5.3
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.9 5.0 4.0
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.3 3.1 6.4
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 20.5 4.0 8.3
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.3 11.0 2.5
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 8.5 2.0
7 Caris LeVert CLE 12.7 5.5 7.1
8 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.4 4.1 2.6
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 9.9 3.6 1.9
10 Georges Niang CLE 9.4 3.4 1.7
11 Amen Thompson HOU 8.2 6.3 1.5
12 Sam Merrill CLE 7.0 2.3 1.9
13 Ty Jerome CLE 6.5 2.2 3.4
14 Jock Landale HOU 5.2 3.4 1.3
15 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.0 4.7 1.5
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.9 1.9 1.1
17 Jeff Green HOU 4.5 1.8 1.1
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.2 1.4 1.0
19 Dean Wade CLE 4.1 2.8 0.7
20 Damian Jones CLE 4.0 2.9 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.5 3.0 0.8
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.5 2.8 0.7
23 Nate Williams HOU 3.4 1.8 0.6
24 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.3 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.