NBA games

ATL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
122–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28343426122
UTAH34273726124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home UTAH
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 39 33 6 9
De'Andre Hunter 32 27 2 1
Jalen Johnson S 35 26 5 5
Wesley Matthews S 17 13 3 1
Clint Capela S 32 10 15 4
Garrison Mathews 22 9 3 4
Vit Krejci S 29 2 0 2
Bruno Fernando 16 2 5 2
Trent Forrest 19 0 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 35 25 4 5
Collin Sexton S 31 21 4 6
Johnny Juzang 25 19 3 0
John Collins S 30 18 11 2
Brice Sensabaugh S 28 14 4 2
Micah Potter 14 11 2 1
Walker Kessler 26 6 9 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 19 5 0 5
Taylor Hendricks S 19 3 10 0
Jason Preston 12 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"John Collins makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 John Collins UTAH
9%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
9 Luka Samanic UTAH
7%
10 Wesley Matthews ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
50%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 26.6 5.5 8.4
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.5 3.3 6.4
3 Keyonte George UTAH 19.7 3.4 6.2
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.0 8.7 3.5
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.0 4.1 5.0
6 John Collins UTAH 16.3 9.8 1.8
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.1 3.8 1.8
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.1 7.8 1.6
9 Clint Capela ATL 11.0 10.4 1.6
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.2 8.2 1.3
11 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.8 6.0 1.3
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 6.7 2.4 1.5
13 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.1 2.5 2.0
14 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.0 5.1 1.0
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.9 2.0 0.8
16 Vit Krejci ATL 4.4 1.5 1.7
17 Micah Potter UTAH 3.8 1.7 0.6
18 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.6 2.2 0.7
19 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.5 1.7 0.8
20 Trent Forrest ATL 3.3 1.6 2.1
21 Dylan Windler ATL 3.0 1.1 0.9
22 Johnny Juzang UTAH 2.8 1.0 0.8
23 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.4 2.0 0.4
24 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.