NBA games

DEN @ SA

NBA Moody Center ·Final
117–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN37212831117
SA18313027106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SA
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 31 31 7 5
Jamal Murray S 34 15 10 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 23 13 7 1
Christian Braun 24 13 4 4
Justin Holiday 21 13 1 2
Peyton Watson 23 10 3 2
Reggie Jackson 14 7 1 3
Aaron Gordon S 25 7 3 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 27 4 0 3
Zeke Nnaji 16 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremy Sochan S 28 19 6 4
Devin Vassell S 39 17 2 2
Victor Wembanyama S 33 17 9 2
Zach Collins 15 13 6 0
Julian Champagnie S 26 10 1 1
Keldon Johnson 26 9 7 2
Tre Jones S 33 8 6 9
Dominick Barlow 13 6 6 1
Blake Wesley 15 5 1 2
Malaki Branham 12 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes dunk (Michael Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Tre Jones SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
25%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.9 12.6 9.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.7 11.2 5.1
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.6 4.5 7.4
4 Devin Vassell SA 22.4 4.8 5.4
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.6 7.1 2.0
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.3 5.9 4.0
7 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 4.2 2.2
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.0 6.7 2.7
9 Malaki Branham SA 12.9 2.5 2.6
10 Tre Jones SA 11.2 4.0 6.2
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.7 2.8 2.7
12 Zach Collins SA 10.6 4.7 2.2
13 Julian Champagnie SA 6.8 3.3 2.0
14 Christian Braun DEN 6.3 3.4 1.3
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.3 3.4 1.1
16 Reggie Jackson DEN 6.0 1.4 1.7
17 Dominick Barlow SA 5.9 3.7 1.0
18 Blake Wesley SA 4.7 1.9 2.7
19 Justin Holiday DEN 4.6 1.6 1.3
20 David Duke Jr. SA 3.4 1.2 0.8
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.3 3.4 0.5
22 Devonte' Graham SA 3.3 1.4 0.6
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.1 2.3 0.6
24 Julian Strawther DEN 2.5 0.9 0.6
25 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.4 1.6 0.6
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.3 1.5 0.7
27 Jay Huff DEN 2.2 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.