NBA games

LAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
104–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC22223624104
NO20303230112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NO
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 41 26 5 6
Kawhi Leonard S 39 23 7 2
Norman Powell 26 15 0 1
Ivica Zubac S 33 9 11 2
Terance Mann S 18 9 4 0
Amir Coffey 22 8 3 3
P.J. Tucker 24 6 2 0
Bones Hyland S 24 5 2 4
Mason Plumlee 6 3 2 0
Daniel Theis 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 35 34 7 4
Trey Murphy III 32 14 6 4
Brandon Ingram S 35 13 5 7
Larry Nance Jr. 28 12 4 3
CJ McCollum S 30 11 6 4
Jose Alvarado 15 9 0 0
Naji Marshall 14 8 2 1
Herbert Jones S 33 7 4 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 18 4 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Paul George makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
5 CJ McCollum NO
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
7 P.J. Tucker LAC
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Paul George LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
39%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.1 7.2 6.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.2 6.4 4.5
3 Brandon Ingram NO 22.0 5.2 6.5
4 Paul George LAC 20.8 4.8 4.2
5 Trey Murphy III NO 16.5 5.2 2.9
6 CJ McCollum NO 15.5 4.2 2.9
7 Norman Powell LAC 14.7 3.7 2.0
8 Herbert Jones NO 11.8 3.3 2.7
9 Terance Mann LAC 11.4 3.6 1.4
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.6 7.7 1.8
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 9.5 8.7 1.5
12 Naji Marshall NO 7.4 3.8 2.2
13 Jose Alvarado NO 7.2 2.6 2.4
14 Amir Coffey LAC 6.4 2.7 1.5
15 Daniel Theis LAC 6.3 5.3 1.2
16 Bones Hyland LAC 6.2 1.7 3.3
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.8 4.4 1.8
18 Xavier Moon LAC 5.2 2.2 1.7
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.2 1.7 0.8
20 Matt Ryan NO 5.0 1.6 0.7
21 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.0 4.3 1.3
22 Brandon Boston LAC 3.6 1.7 0.5
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.5 1.6 0.8
24 Jalen Crutcher NO 2.6 0.6 1.0
25 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.2 1.5 0.5
26 Cody Zeller NO 1.3 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.