NBA games

ORL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
113–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24263429113
TOR27212530103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home TOR
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 31 19 7 4
Paolo Banchero S 36 17 9 8
Jalen Suggs S 30 16 1 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 15 8 3
Cole Anthony 22 12 3 0
Jonathan Isaac 20 10 6 0
Moritz Wagner 12 7 3 0
Gary Harris S 25 6 1 0
Markelle Fultz 17 6 0 2
Joe Ingles 15 5 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 32 31 4 0
Jordan Nwora 16 14 5 0
Bruce Brown 30 12 4 5
Kelly Olynyk S 26 10 9 3
Immanuel Quickley S 35 10 3 10
Jahmi'us Ramsey 18 10 5 1
Ochai Agbaji S 34 8 4 0
Gradey Dick S 23 8 2 1
Jontay Porter 27 0 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
4 Bruce Brown TOR
9%
5 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Gary Harris ORL
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Kelly Olynyk TOR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
36%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.5 7.1 5.9
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 22.5 5.6 7.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 18.3 5.9 3.8
4 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 14.3 3.8 1.7
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.0 3.9 4.1
6 Kelly Olynyk TOR 14.0 4.9 4.6
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.4 8.2 2.1
8 Cole Anthony ORL 10.8 3.9 2.8
9 Gradey Dick TOR 10.7 3.1 1.5
10 Gary Harris ORL 9.8 2.4 1.7
11 Bruce Brown TOR 9.5 3.6 2.4
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.9 4.6 1.4
13 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.2 4.6 0.9
14 Markelle Fultz ORL 7.1 4.3 1.9
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.3 2.9 1.1
16 Anthony Black ORL 5.8 3.0 1.2
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.1 1.6 2.4
18 Jordan Nwora TOR 5.0 2.5 0.8
19 Jontay Porter TOR 4.8 2.7 1.7
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.4 1.9 0.8
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.3 2.3 1.0
22 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.3 2.0 1.0
23 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.4 2.9 0.9
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.8 1.1 0.6
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.