NBA games

MIA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
108–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA27292824108
DET2826182395

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DET
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 29 22 9 2
Caleb Martin 33 18 8 6
Terry Rozier S 34 18 5 1
Duncan Robinson S 33 16 2 5
Jimmy Butler III S 31 14 4 3
Thomas Bryant 17 11 5 0
Nikola Jovic S 15 7 5 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 2 5 4
Jamal Cain 1 0 0 0
Haywood Highsmith 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Simone Fontecchio S 34 24 6 0
Jalen Duren S 34 15 17 1
Jaden Ivey S 38 14 3 9
Evan Fournier 16 12 1 3
Cade Cunningham S 31 11 6 9
Isaiah Stewart S 37 10 6 2
James Wiseman 13 6 7 1
Marcus Sasser 24 3 2 2
Malachi Flynn 1 0 0 0
Tosan Evbuomwan 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 1-foot layup (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Jalen Duren DET
13%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
8 Simone Fontecchio DET
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
44%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.5 5.0 7.8
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.6 6.1 6.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.0 10.1 3.6
4 Jaden Ivey DET 17.8 3.4 4.3
5 Terry Rozier MIA 17.3 4.2 5.9
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.9 11.2 3.3
7 Simone Fontecchio DET 14.8 4.1 2.1
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.9 3.4 3.7
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.0 4.5 2.3
10 Caleb Martin MIA 11.8 4.7 1.8
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.8 5.6 1.4
12 James Wiseman DET 6.9 6.3 1.0
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.7 3.6 1.8
14 Marcus Sasser DET 6.3 2.2 3.4
15 Evan Fournier DET 5.4 1.6 1.3
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.2 2.2 0.8
17 Stanley Umude DET 4.8 2.3 0.7
18 Patty Mills MIA 4.5 1.8 0.9
19 Jamal Cain MIA 4.2 1.9 0.5
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.0 2.0 0.6
21 Malachi Flynn DET 3.0 0.9 0.8
22 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.8 1.4 0.7
23 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 2.6 1.9 0.5
24 Delon Wright MIA 2.5 0.9 1.2
25 Cole Swider MIA 1.9 0.4 0.4
26 Taj Gibson DET 1.8 1.7 0.6
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.5 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.