NBA games

PHX @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
107–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28263815107
CHA2619222996

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CHA
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 21 6 11
Grayson Allen S 33 17 0 3
Bradley Beal S 36 15 6 7
Eric Gordon 26 14 1 2
Kevin Durant S 38 13 8 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 13 21 2
Drew Eubanks 15 6 8 0
Royce O'Neale 15 5 3 1
Bol Bol 8 3 3 0
Nassir Little 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Vasilije Micic S 31 21 1 3
Grant Williams 32 20 6 1
Miles Bridges S 38 17 10 3
Brandon Miller S 29 14 4 1
Tre Mann S 36 12 4 7
Nick Smith Jr. 1 4 1 0
Aleksej Pokusevski 16 4 5 3
Davis Bertans 26 2 2 2
Nick Richards S 28 2 15 0
JT Thor 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes layup (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
16%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
15%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
6 Nick Richards CHA
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Tre Mann CHA
7%
9 Vasilije Micic CHA
6%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
35%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.0 7.0 4.8
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.5 4.5 6.1
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 7.9 3.5
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.4 3.9 5.3
5 Brandon Miller CHA 18.9 4.9 3.6
6 Grayson Allen PHX 15.2 3.9 2.4
7 Vasilije Micic CHA 14.0 2.9 6.2
8 Grant Williams CHA 13.6 5.4 3.1
9 Tre Mann CHA 12.8 4.7 3.5
10 Nick Richards CHA 11.9 9.2 1.1
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.3 12.6 3.9
12 Eric Gordon PHX 9.8 2.0 1.7
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.2 5.6 3.5
14 Davis Bertans CHA 8.8 2.7 1.5
15 Bol Bol PHX 8.1 4.9 0.7
16 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.1 4.5 1.6
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.0 4.7 0.6
18 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.9 1.3 1.4
19 David Roddy PHX 4.0 1.5 0.6
20 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.0 1.8 0.7
21 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 3.9 2.0 1.0
22 Nassir Little PHX 2.9 1.7 0.6
23 Amari Bailey CHA 2.4 1.1 0.5
24 JT Thor CHA 2.3 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.