NBA games

NY @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
105–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY26293020105
POR2516272593

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home POR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 45 1 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 37 12 5 3
OG Anunoby S 36 12 9 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 9 9 2
Josh Hart S 42 7 15 2
Miles McBride 22 6 3 0
Bojan Bogdanovic 14 5 0 1
Alec Burks 4 5 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 24 4 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 40 31 14 0
Dalano Banton S 42 16 2 2
Scoot Henderson S 26 12 7 6
Kris Murray S 31 10 4 1
Ashton Hagans 22 8 5 3
Toumani Camara S 34 7 3 4
Matisse Thybulle 21 5 2 3
Justin Minaya 13 4 5 0
Duop Reath 11 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 15-foot jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
18%
2 Donte DiVincenzo NY
16%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Dalano Banton POR
10%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Kris Murray POR
8%
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
10 Precious Achiuwa NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.0 3.2 6.7
2 Deandre Ayton POR 20.6 12.4 2.6
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.8 4.5 3.8
4 OG Anunoby NY 16.0 4.8 2.1
5 Scoot Henderson POR 15.9 3.3 5.1
6 Dalano Banton POR 14.1 4.8 2.7
7 Josh Hart NY 13.9 11.5 5.6
8 Precious Achiuwa NY 12.3 8.9 1.7
9 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 11.4 2.6 1.6
10 Duop Reath POR 10.2 3.3 1.1
11 Miles McBride NY 9.9 2.3 2.7
12 Toumani Camara POR 9.9 5.6 1.8
13 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.6 3.6 1.5
14 Kris Murray POR 9.1 4.8 2.6
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.9 3.7 1.8
16 Mamadi Diakite NY 7.0 2.9 0.6
17 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 6.5 5.7 2.5
18 Alec Burks NY 5.1 1.6 0.8
19 Jericho Sims NY 5.1 5.6 1.2
20 Shake Milton NY 4.1 2.3 1.1
21 Ashton Hagans POR 3.8 1.9 2.1
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.6 1.8 1.0
23 Moses Brown POR 2.8 3.5 0.5
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.5 1.3 0.6
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.