NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
119–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27362432119
OKC33323031126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 38 36 4 12
Tim Hardaway Jr. 31 23 9 3
Daniel Gafford S 26 19 15 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 32 10 1 0
Jaden Hardy 17 9 2 5
Dante Exum S 22 7 0 2
P.J. Washington S 36 6 5 1
Dereck Lively II 14 4 2 0
Maxi Kleber 21 3 2 1
Josh Green 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 31 9 5
Jalen Williams S 35 27 4 5
Josh Giddey S 22 18 3 5
Luguentz Dort S 28 12 1 3
Chet Holmgren S 32 11 8 1
Isaiah Joe 19 8 2 2
Gordon Hayward 21 6 1 1
Kenrich Williams 7 5 2 0
Jaylin Williams 10 3 1 2
Cason Wallace 18 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Layup (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes two point shot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Gordon Hayward OKC
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
42%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.6 6.4 6.3
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.0 4.7 4.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 4.5 4.3
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.2 8.9 3.2
5 Josh Giddey OKC 13.1 6.5 4.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 11.6 5.5 1.5
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 3.3 1.6
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.6 6.4 0.8
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 7.9 2.2 1.6
10 Josh Green DAL 7.9 3.5 1.6
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.8 4.8 0.9
12 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 2.9 1.5
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.4 2.5 1.2
14 Dante Exum DAL 6.2 2.2 2.8
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.2 2.8 1.1
16 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.7 2.5 0.9
17 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.7 2.7 2.1
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.3 3.3 1.3
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 1.3 0.7
20 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.5 3.2 1.1
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.7 3.1 1.2
22 Mike Muscala OKC 3.6 1.8 0.8
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.1 1.5 0.5
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.1 1.5 0.6
25 Bismack Biyombo OKC 3.0 3.6 0.9
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.6 1.1 0.5
27 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.