NBA games

PHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
105–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI29322222105
MIL24292734114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 37 30 4 4
Tobias Harris S 28 15 4 3
Cameron Payne 12 13 1 2
Kyle Lowry S 27 12 2 0
Buddy Hield 21 9 0 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 33 9 4 0
Mo Bamba S 23 5 5 3
Nicolas Batum 21 5 2 3
KJ Martin 14 4 1 1
Paul Reed 24 3 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 32 11 7
Brook Lopez S 37 19 7 5
Damian Lillard S 38 17 3 9
AJ Green 28 14 5 0
Pat Connaughton 29 9 3 4
Jae Crowder S 19 9 2 0
Bobby Portis 22 8 3 1
Patrick Beverley S 26 6 2 2
Danilo Gallinari 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
17%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
6 Jae Crowder MIL
9%
7 Mo Bamba PHI
9%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Kyle Lowry PHI
8%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
48%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.1 10.9 6.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.7 4.3 5.6
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.4 5.3 7.3
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.0 5.8 2.5
5 Tobias Harris PHI 15.8 7.3 2.4
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.5 8.0 1.8
7 Paul Reed PHI 11.3 7.9 1.6
8 Buddy Hield PHI 11.3 3.7 3.3
9 Cameron Payne PHI 9.4 2.1 2.5
10 Brook Lopez MIL 9.3 4.1 1.5
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.5 3.0 5.0
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 8.4 3.1 1.5
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.4 3.8 1.7
14 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.1 4.2 1.5
15 Jae Crowder MIL 5.6 3.7 1.3
16 KJ Martin PHI 5.1 3.5 1.0
17 AJ Green MIL 5.0 1.6 0.9
18 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.7 1.6 1.6
19 Mo Bamba PHI 4.6 4.0 0.9
20 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.4 2.0 0.7
21 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.0 1.6 1.0
22 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.4 1.5 0.8
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.5 0.9
25 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 2.4 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.