NBA games

WSH @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
119–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31253924119
HOU33423525135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home HOU
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole 32 25 1 2
Deni Avdija S 36 24 9 5
Kyle Kuzma S 31 23 3 3
Tyus Jones S 31 13 1 8
Corey Kispert S 27 11 2 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 34 10 3 4
Jules Bernard 3 7 0 0
Eugene Omoruyi 7 4 2 0
Johnny Davis 8 2 0 0
Justin Champagnie 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 37 37 8 2
Fred VanVleet S 37 27 3 9
Amen Thompson S 28 20 11 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 16 5 1
Dillon Brooks S 31 13 6 4
Jock Landale 27 13 5 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 14 3 4 1
Jae'Sean Tate 15 2 4 1
Nate Williams 2 2 1 0
Jeff Green 13 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
57%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.6 7.4 4.9
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.0 5.0 4.3
3 Jordan Poole WSH 22.2 4.1 5.1
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 20.4 4.2 7.7
5 Deni Avdija WSH 19.7 9.2 3.2
6 Corey Kispert WSH 15.8 3.7 2.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.0 9.9 2.3
8 Tyus Jones WSH 10.6 3.1 8.5
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 9.4 3.5 1.9
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.5 4.0 1.6
11 Amen Thompson HOU 7.9 6.7 1.6
12 Jeff Green HOU 5.3 2.1 1.1
13 Jared Butler WSH 4.9 1.4 2.0
14 Jock Landale HOU 4.7 3.3 1.5
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.7 1.5 1.2
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.0 2.2 0.7
17 Johnny Davis WSH 3.8 2.2 0.7
18 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.8 2.3 0.6
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 3.1 1.0
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.8 3.0 0.8
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.7 1.6 0.7
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.6 1.9 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Nate Williams HOU 2.7 1.3 0.5
25 Jules Bernard WSH 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.