NBA games

LAC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
126–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC37272834126
CHI26272731111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home CHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 35 28 5 7
Kawhi Leonard S 34 27 5 3
Norman Powell 28 18 2 2
Bones Hyland S 32 17 5 11
Terance Mann S 31 12 4 2
Amir Coffey 22 9 3 1
Ivica Zubac S 32 6 8 2
Brandon Boston 8 5 1 0
Daniel Theis 14 4 2 3
Xavier Moon 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 36 21 5 4
Nikola Vucevic S 35 19 6 5
Alex Caruso S 36 17 3 6
Andre Drummond 16 15 7 1
Torrey Craig S 27 12 6 1
Jevon Carter 17 12 3 2
Ayo Dosunmu S 35 7 4 4
Dalen Terry 13 4 1 0
Henri Drell 3 2 1 2
Onuralp Bitim 17 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
15%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
6 Alex Caruso CHI
11%
7 Paul George LAC
10%
8 P.J. Tucker LAC
9%
9 Terance Mann LAC
9%
10 Bones Hyland LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
19%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.9 5.5 5.9
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.8 6.1 4.4
3 Paul George LAC 21.7 4.9 4.2
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.3 10.4 3.4
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.1 4.2 5.8
6 Norman Powell LAC 15.6 3.8 2.0
7 Terance Mann LAC 12.5 4.2 1.5
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.6 8.2 1.9
9 Alex Caruso CHI 10.1 3.7 4.0
10 Andre Drummond CHI 7.5 8.7 1.0
11 Amir Coffey LAC 6.5 2.8 1.6
12 Daniel Theis LAC 6.4 4.9 1.1
13 Torrey Craig CHI 6.2 3.5 1.3
14 Xavier Moon LAC 6.0 2.3 2.1
15 Bones Hyland LAC 5.6 1.5 2.4
16 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.3 1.9 0.8
17 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.9 4.9 1.3
18 Brandon Boston LAC 4.1 1.7 0.6
19 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 1.2 1.1
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.1 1.7 1.1
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.4 1.6 0.6
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.2 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.