NBA games

PHX @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
112–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX32282527112
BOS35303725127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home BOS
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 23 2 7
Bradley Beal S 36 22 3 7
Kevin Durant S 34 20 3 1
Grayson Allen S 36 20 3 0
Bol Bol 15 10 4 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 8 20 6
David Roddy 3 4 1 0
Ish Wainright 11 3 5 1
Thaddeus Young 3 2 1 1
Drew Eubanks 4 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 37 5 3
Jayson Tatum S 33 26 5 5
Al Horford S 33 24 3 3
Derrick White S 33 13 8 5
Jrue Holiday S 33 9 0 10
Sam Hauser 23 8 4 2
Xavier Tillman 18 5 4 1
Payton Pritchard 19 3 3 1
Luke Kornet 12 2 1 1
Oshae Brissett 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
4 Devin Booker PHX
9%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
6 Jayson Tatum BOS
8%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
14%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 29.6 7.0 4.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.9 6.4 4.1
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.1 7.1 5.7
4 Devin Booker PHX 24.9 4.4 5.9
5 Bradley Beal PHX 21.2 4.2 4.8
6 Derrick White BOS 13.8 5.1 5.9
7 Grayson Allen PHX 13.0 3.9 2.4
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.1 4.0 5.0
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.0 11.1 4.0
10 Al Horford BOS 9.7 5.8 1.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.4 5.6 3.2
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.3 0.9
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.5 3.0 2.1
14 Bol Bol PHX 7.4 4.7 0.6
15 Luke Kornet BOS 6.1 4.8 1.2
16 Xavier Tillman BOS 6.0 3.8 1.2
17 Thaddeus Young PHX 5.6 4.1 1.5
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 4.1 0.6
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.2 4.2 0.6
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.2 1.4 0.9
21 David Roddy PHX 3.7 1.4 0.7
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.6 2.2 0.9
23 Ish Wainright PHX 3.4 1.4 0.5
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.4 2.6 1.1
25 Nassir Little PHX 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.