NBA games

LAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29271734107
SAC29312832120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SAC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 37 28 6 4
Anthony Davis S 41 22 10 3
Rui Hachimura S 36 20 3 1
LeBron James S 40 18 13 9
Taurean Prince 13 7 1 0
D'Angelo Russell S 33 6 2 6
Jaxson Hayes 7 4 1 0
Max Christie 10 2 1 1
Maxwell Lewis 1 0 0 0
Skylar Mays 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 38 23 2 2
De'Aaron Fox S 35 21 4 7
Keegan Murray S 39 19 11 3
Domantas Sabonis S 38 17 19 10
Keon Ellis S 28 14 2 0
Malik Monk 26 8 3 6
Chris Duarte 8 6 1 0
Davion Mitchell 16 6 2 2
Alex Len 9 4 0 0
Kessler Edwards 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Layup (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes two point shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
6 LeBron James LAL
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 30.5 5.7 7.8
2 LeBron James LAL 26.4 5.9 8.8
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.9 11.9 3.2
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.5 14.8 9.5
5 Malik Monk SAC 21.7 4.3 6.3
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.4 4.1 6.0
7 Austin Reaves LAL 18.0 4.8 6.3
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.8 4.0 1.5
9 Keegan Murray SAC 13.1 5.0 1.7
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.0 2.8 1.5
11 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.9 1.6 1.7
12 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 6.3 1.6 2.3
13 Taurean Prince LAL 6.2 2.8 1.4
14 Chris Duarte SAC 5.3 2.5 0.8
15 Keon Ellis SAC 4.6 2.1 1.5
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.5 3.5 0.6
17 JaVale McGee SAC 4.3 3.1 0.7
18 Max Christie LAL 4.0 1.6 0.9
19 Alex Len SAC 3.6 3.2 0.7
20 Jordan Ford SAC 3.3 1.2 0.7
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.0 1.5 0.7
22 Colby Jones SAC 2.8 1.9 1.0
23 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.7 1.9 0.7
24 Harry Giles III LAL 2.4 1.5 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.9 0.8 0.5
26 Skylar Mays LAL 1.9 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.