NBA games

ATL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
102–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL24282327102
POR17303524106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home POR
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 43 40 4 3
Clint Capela S 27 13 14 1
De'Andre Hunter 33 11 1 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 34 8 7 8
Garrison Mathews 21 8 2 0
Vit Krejci S 31 7 2 2
Trent Forrest 11 6 0 4
Bruno Fernando 21 6 7 0
Wesley Matthews S 14 3 0 0
Dylan Windler 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 43 36 7 8
Deandre Ayton S 41 33 19 1
Dalano Banton S 19 12 5 2
Kris Murray S 35 9 6 2
Matisse Thybulle 32 8 5 4
Toumani Camara S 30 3 6 3
Justin Minaya 15 2 0 1
Scoot Henderson 17 2 1 3
Duop Reath 8 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Layup (2 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Clint Capela makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
14%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
11%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
8 Kris Murray POR
7%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
35%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.5 5.8 8.1
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.1 3.9 6.3
3 Deandre Ayton POR 18.7 12.2 2.4
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.4 8.7 3.2
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.3 4.0 4.3
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.8 3.8 1.7
7 Scoot Henderson POR 16.2 3.3 5.3
8 Dalano Banton POR 14.4 4.5 2.9
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.9 7.1 1.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.0 5.6 1.9
11 Duop Reath POR 10.9 4.1 1.3
12 Clint Capela ATL 10.6 10.0 1.5
13 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.9 3.7 1.7
14 Kris Murray POR 9.2 5.2 2.5
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.2 3.2 1.7
16 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.2 6.2 1.2
17 Rayan Rupert POR 3.9 1.9 1.2
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.5 0.6
19 Moses Brown POR 3.2 3.7 0.6
20 Vit Krejci ATL 2.7 1.1 1.5
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.5 1.6 0.6
22 Trent Forrest ATL 2.2 1.1 1.5
23 Justin Minaya POR 1.7 0.8 0.5
24 Dylan Windler ATL 1.4 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.