NBA games

GS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
99–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2715282999
DAL27212833109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DAL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 35 27 4 2
Andrew Wiggins S 28 17 5 1
Brandin Podziemski 28 11 5 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 25 10 9 1
Moses Moody 19 9 3 1
Chris Paul S 31 9 4 4
Klay Thompson S 27 8 4 0
Kevon Looney 17 4 2 0
Jerome Robinson 3 4 2 0
Lester Quinones 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 35 23 8 10
Luka Doncic S 30 21 3 9
Dereck Lively II 20 12 8 0
Josh Green 24 11 5 0
P.J. Washington S 34 11 7 1
Daniel Gafford S 26 10 6 1
Dante Exum 25 9 2 6
Derrick Jones Jr. S 19 7 3 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 14 5 0 2
Dwight Powell 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
19%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
16%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
6 Klay Thompson GS
8%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
7%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
9 Chris Paul GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
9%
Layup
67%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.2 9.1 11.1
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.6 4.7 3.6
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.6 6.2 3.3
4 Klay Thompson GS 16.8 3.2 2.2
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.2 4.1 2.3
6 P.J. Washington DAL 11.6 5.3 1.6
7 Chris Paul GS 11.1 4.2 6.1
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.0 5.7 4.6
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.5 2.6 1.6
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.1 6.2 0.9
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.0 5.6 1.2
12 Moses Moody GS 7.9 3.7 1.0
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.6 4.6 1.0
14 Josh Green DAL 7.5 3.2 1.9
15 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.6 2.3 1.0
16 Dante Exum DAL 5.6 2.1 2.4
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.5 1.3 0.9
18 Gary Payton II GS 5.4 2.9 1.1
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.1 3.6 1.2
20 Lester Quinones GS 4.9 2.1 0.9
21 Dario Saric GS 3.5 1.9 1.8
22 Markieff Morris DAL 3.1 1.3 0.6
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.0 1.4 0.6
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.0 0.7
25 Jerome Robinson GS 2.4 1.0 0.7
26 Kevon Looney GS 2.3 2.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.