NBA games

CLE @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
116–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30233429116
NO2223232795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NO
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 34 27 6 11
Jarrett Allen S 32 17 10 1
Georges Niang S 28 16 6 1
Sam Merrill 28 15 2 9
Donovan Mitchell S 28 14 4 5
Damian Jones 21 14 6 0
Isaac Okoro S 33 7 7 2
Caris LeVert 30 2 5 9
Craig Porter Jr. 4 2 0 0
Isaiah Mobley 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 35 33 9 1
Brandon Ingram S 32 20 5 5
Trey Murphy III 28 11 1 3
CJ McCollum S 29 8 3 1
Naji Marshall 26 7 5 2
Jose Alvarado 19 5 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas S 15 5 7 2
Herbert Jones S 26 3 5 3
Jordan Hawkins 5 3 0 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 5 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
12%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
5 Caris LeVert CLE
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 CJ McCollum NO
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
38%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.1 7.1 6.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.1 4.4 5.2
3 Brandon Ingram NO 22.0 5.3 6.8
4 Darius Garland CLE 20.9 2.8 6.6
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.1 11.2 2.9
6 Trey Murphy III NO 16.0 5.5 2.9
7 CJ McCollum NO 15.9 4.2 3.4
8 Caris LeVert CLE 12.9 4.9 6.9
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.1 3.5 2.6
10 Herbert Jones NO 11.8 3.5 2.3
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 9.6 8.9 1.5
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.6 3.1 1.6
13 Jose Alvarado NO 7.0 2.6 2.5
14 Naji Marshall NO 6.5 3.9 2.0
15 Ty Jerome CLE 6.4 2.1 3.5
16 Sam Merrill CLE 5.8 2.2 1.6
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.7 4.5 1.7
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.9 1.9 1.1
19 Dean Wade CLE 4.5 2.8 0.7
20 Matt Ryan NO 4.1 1.6 0.5
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.9 1.2 0.5
22 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.6 1.9 1.0
23 Damian Jones CLE 3.5 2.9 0.7
24 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.4 1.1 0.4
25 Cody Zeller NO 1.9 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.