NBA games

DEN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
100–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN26242228100
MIA1925271788

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIA
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 25 7 0
Aaron Gordon S 33 16 8 4
Jamal Murray S 31 14 2 5
Nikola Jokic S 38 12 14 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 25 9 1 2
Reggie Jackson 19 9 1 2
Christian Braun 20 7 2 1
Peyton Watson 23 6 3 2
Justin Holiday 13 2 3 2
Zeke Nnaji 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 34 17 13 3
Jimmy Butler III S 36 15 5 2
Terry Rozier S 35 14 4 4
Duncan Robinson S 31 11 6 3
Caleb Martin 25 9 2 1
Thomas Bryant 14 9 6 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 8 2 0
Nikola Jovic S 16 3 1 1
Patty Mills 14 2 3 3
Haywood Highsmith 8 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terry Rozier · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Terry Rozier makes 1-foot two point shot (Jimmy Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
29%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.8 12.9 9.7
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.9 6.5 6.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.5 4.5 6.7
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.6 7.6 2.3
5 Terry Rozier MIA 18.4 4.4 6.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.0 8.6 3.4
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.6 5.2 4.2
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 14.8 3.2 4.0
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.3 5.0 2.5
10 Caleb Martin MIA 11.6 4.7 1.9
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.6 2.8 2.6
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 4.0 2.1
13 Peyton Watson DEN 6.9 3.6 1.1
14 Christian Braun DEN 6.3 4.0 1.3
15 Reggie Jackson DEN 5.9 1.4 2.0
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.2 2.3 0.7
17 Justin Holiday DEN 4.9 1.7 1.3
18 Patty Mills MIA 3.8 1.4 0.8
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 2.7 0.5
20 Julian Strawther DEN 2.7 1.0 0.7
21 Jay Huff DEN 2.4 1.1 0.5
22 Delon Wright MIA 2.4 0.9 1.2
23 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.2 1.5 0.4
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.9 2.6 0.2
25 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.9 1.7 0.5
26 Cole Swider MIA 1.8 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.