NBA games

CHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
132–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI3028352415132
IND2834233212129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home IND
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 44 46 9 3
Alex Caruso S 37 23 7 7
Ayo Dosunmu S 43 20 4 3
Coby White S 36 15 4 3
Nikola Vucevic S 43 12 12 3
Torrey Craig 22 10 5 2
Andre Drummond 10 3 4 0
Onuralp Bitim 13 2 1 1
Dalen Terry 6 1 1 0
Julian Phillips 11 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 34 27 7 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 17 3 14
Pascal Siakam S 36 17 9 3
T.J. McConnell 20 16 4 4
Jalen Smith 18 15 6 0
Aaron Nesmith S 27 13 4 1
Jarace Walker 24 10 4 0
Andrew Nembhard S 30 8 3 2
Obi Toppin 18 4 4 4
Ben Sheppard 21 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Coby White CHI
13%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
26%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.4 5.0 5.6
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.0 10.8 3.2
3 Coby White CHI 21.1 4.4 5.3
4 Pascal Siakam IND 20.6 8.0 3.7
5 Myles Turner IND 18.7 7.8 1.7
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.3 4.4 9.9
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.1 4.4 6.1
8 T.J. McConnell IND 12.3 3.6 5.3
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.9 3.5 1.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.9 3.3 3.1
11 Alex Caruso CHI 9.5 3.4 3.2
12 Obi Toppin IND 8.6 4.0 1.3
13 Andre Drummond CHI 8.5 9.3 0.9
14 Jalen Smith IND 8.4 4.9 1.5
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.7 4.2 0.8
16 Ben Sheppard IND 6.5 2.2 0.9
17 Torrey Craig CHI 6.1 3.4 1.1
18 Onuralp Bitim CHI 5.3 2.0 0.7
19 Quenton Jackson IND 5.0 1.6 1.4
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.6 1.8 0.7
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.5 1.1
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 1.8 1.3
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.6 2.8 1.0
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.8 1.7 0.6
25 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.3 0.4
26 Kendall Brown IND 1.4 0.6 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.