NBA games

BKN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
106–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN16382329106
ORL33283221114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ORL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 39 21 8 4
Mikal Bridges S 30 17 4 1
Dennis Schroder S 29 13 1 3
Cameron Johnson 29 13 3 2
Nic Claxton S 30 10 5 5
Dennis Smith Jr. 18 10 3 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 25 6 3 2
Trendon Watford 2 6 1 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 5 2 0
Jalen Wilson 14 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 21 3 9
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 15 8 2
Franz Wagner S 28 14 5 6
Jalen Suggs S 30 14 4 2
Gary Harris S 30 13 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 20 11 3 0
Markelle Fultz 19 10 8 2
Joe Ingles 16 6 0 3
Cole Anthony 16 6 1 2
Goga Bitadze 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Layup (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes driving layup (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Dennis Schroder BKN
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
7 Mikal Bridges BKN
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
27%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.3 6.9 4.9
2 Cam Thomas BKN 20.3 3.9 3.8
3 Dennis Schroder BKN 19.3 3.3 6.2
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 18.1 4.0 4.5
5 Franz Wagner ORL 17.4 5.3 3.2
6 Nic Claxton BKN 13.2 8.0 2.4
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.1 3.3 3.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.0 7.6 1.6
9 Cole Anthony ORL 11.0 3.7 3.0
10 Cameron Johnson BKN 10.7 3.3 1.8
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.5 5.0 2.3
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.8 5.1 1.3
13 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.7 2.6 1.1
14 Gary Harris ORL 7.3 1.9 1.4
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.1 5.2 0.7
16 Markelle Fultz ORL 6.0 3.1 1.8
17 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.7 2.4 2.7
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.5 2.6 1.1
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.2 4.7 1.6
20 Joe Ingles ORL 4.2 1.3 2.0
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.0 2.5 0.9
22 Trendon Watford BKN 3.9 2.1 0.5
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.4 1.4 0.6
24 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 2.2 1.2 0.4
25 Goga Bitadze ORL 1.9 1.9 0.6
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.4 0.7 0.4
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.3 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.