NBA games

TOR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
104–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27302225104
DET32203130113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DET
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 36 25 5 8
Kelly Olynyk S 31 19 6 8
Bruce Brown S 33 17 4 5
Jordan Nwora 21 12 2 0
Jontay Porter 21 10 6 6
Gradey Dick S 32 9 3 1
Jalen McDaniels 21 8 3 1
Jahmi'us Ramsey 19 4 7 0
Ochai Agbaji S 26 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 28 24 23 5
Cade Cunningham S 28 19 3 6
Isaiah Stewart S 33 15 2 1
Jaden Ivey S 37 14 3 7
Simone Fontecchio S 38 12 4 0
Marcus Sasser 22 11 5 3
James Wiseman 19 6 10 1
Quentin Grimes 15 5 0 3
Stanley Umude 15 5 7 0
Evan Fournier 5 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Olynyk · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Kelly Olynyk makes driving layup (Ochai Agbaji assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Immanuel Quickley TOR
12%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
9%
5 Bruce Brown TOR
8%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.3 5.3 8.5
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 22.4 5.6 7.9
3 Jaden Ivey DET 18.1 3.5 4.1
4 Simone Fontecchio DET 15.5 4.2 2.4
5 Jalen Duren DET 15.1 12.6 3.2
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 15.0 4.0 1.9
7 Kelly Olynyk TOR 13.0 4.6 4.0
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.3 6.2 1.6
9 Ausar Thompson DET 11.8 6.4 2.2
10 Gradey Dick TOR 11.3 3.4 1.6
11 Bruce Brown TOR 9.3 3.7 2.1
12 Quentin Grimes DET 8.5 3.2 2.0
13 Marcus Sasser DET 7.4 2.2 4.4
14 James Wiseman DET 7.1 6.2 1.2
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.6 3.0 1.1
16 Evan Fournier DET 6.1 1.8 1.4
17 Stanley Umude DET 5.6 2.4 1.1
18 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 5.1 2.4 1.1
19 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.6 2.8 0.9
20 Jontay Porter TOR 4.4 2.5 1.4
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.0 2.2 1.0
22 Malachi Flynn DET 3.8 1.3 1.2
23 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.6 1.8 1.0
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.3 0.6
25 Taj Gibson DET 2.3 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.