NBA games

MIL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
94129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL3026221694
SAC38372034129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home SAC
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 30 13 4
Malik Beasley S 25 11 3 2
Bobby Portis 21 11 7 1
Damian Lillard S 33 10 5 6
Brook Lopez S 26 7 4 0
Pat Connaughton 23 7 4 1
Danilo Gallinari 7 7 0 0
Patrick Beverley 27 4 2 4
AJ Green 17 3 1 1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 7 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 32 29 6 7
Malik Monk 28 25 5 5
Domantas Sabonis S 34 22 11 8
Harrison Barnes S 32 16 6 2
Kevin Huerter S 25 11 5 3
Keon Ellis S 27 7 4 2
Chris Duarte 11 6 5 2
Alex Len 9 5 1 1
JaVale McGee 5 3 0 1
Davion Mitchell 18 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Ellis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Keon Ellis makes 27-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
17%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
4 Kevin Huerter SAC
12%
5 Harrison Barnes SAC
10%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
7 Jae Crowder MIL
9%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.2 9.9 7.0
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.8 5.8 7.3
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 5.3 7.4
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.7 13.6 8.9
5 Malik Monk SAC 19.0 4.1 5.8
6 Bobby Portis MIL 16.1 7.7 1.9
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.8 2.8 1.3
8 Malik Beasley MIL 10.9 3.2 1.7
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.0 4.7 1.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.8 3.4 2.6
11 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.8 3.2 1.5
12 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.4 1.3 1.4
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.1 3.7 1.5
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.1 3.6 1.1
15 Jae Crowder MIL 6.0 4.0 1.3
16 AJ Green MIL 4.0 1.2 0.6
17 JaVale McGee SAC 3.6 2.8 0.6
18 Keon Ellis SAC 3.4 1.7 1.3
19 Chris Duarte SAC 3.4 1.8 0.4
20 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.0 1.5 0.9
21 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.8 0.6
22 Jordan Ford SAC 3.0 1.1 0.6
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.8 1.7 0.8
24 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.3 1.5 0.7
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.8 0.8 0.7
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.5 0.6 0.4
27 Kessler Edwards SAC 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.