NBA games

MIN @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
118–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN21342934118
LAC34291522100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 37 8 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28 28 3 1
Mike Conley S 27 23 3 3
Kyle Anderson S 29 10 5 7
Rudy Gobert S 33 8 11 3
Naz Reid 22 6 5 3
Jordan McLaughlin 17 4 6 2
T.J. Warren 14 2 0 1
Leonard Miller 3 0 2 0
Josh Minott 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 35 22 3 3
James Harden S 34 12 2 7
Norman Powell 28 11 4 2
Ivica Zubac S 27 10 8 1
Daniel Theis 15 10 4 1
Bones Hyland 18 8 2 3
Amir Coffey 18 8 1 1
Terance Mann S 28 7 2 0
Kawhi Leonard S 12 6 2 2
Brandon Boston 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot hook shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
4 James Harden LAC
8%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
8%
6 Paul George LAC
7%
7 Naz Reid MIN
7%
8 P.J. Tucker LAC
6%
9 Kyle Anderson MIN
6%
10 Terance Mann LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
23%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.9 5.4 4.5
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.7 6.1 4.1
3 James Harden LAC 19.9 5.5 8.0
4 Paul George LAC 19.3 5.0 3.9
5 Norman Powell LAC 16.0 3.5 2.0
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.5 6.2 2.0
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 12.0 1.5
8 Terance Mann LAC 11.9 4.4 1.7
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.8 3.2 4.7
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.4 4.1 1.9
11 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.4 8.3 1.8
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.8 3.0 2.5
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.2 3.4 4.3
14 Amir Coffey LAC 6.2 2.7 1.7
15 T.J. Warren MIN 6.0 2.4 0.9
16 Xavier Moon LAC 5.9 2.5 2.3
17 Daniel Theis LAC 5.7 4.6 0.9
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.1 4.8 1.2
19 Bones Hyland LAC 4.1 1.5 2.0
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.8 1.3 1.6
21 Brandon Boston LAC 3.4 1.6 0.5
22 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 2.2 0.4
23 Daishen Nix MIN 3.0 1.0 0.6
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.0 1.9 0.7
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.5 1.4 0.5
26 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.3 1.2 0.5
27 Jordan Miller LAC 2.2 1.2 0.6
28 Kobe Brown LAC 1.1 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.