NBA games

BOS @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
123–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS44282625123
UTAH33243416107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home UTAH
93% 7%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 34 38 6 2
Derrick White S 35 24 6 3
Jrue Holiday S 38 16 5 8
Sam Hauser S 34 14 5 2
Luke Kornet S 28 12 9 6
Payton Pritchard 25 10 2 2
Xavier Tillman 27 7 8 1
Oshae Brissett 17 2 5 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 1 0 0 0
JD Davison 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 35 26 1 6
Jordan Clarkson 34 21 0 2
Collin Sexton S 31 20 7 5
John Collins S 29 10 4 0
Micah Potter 13 8 2 0
Luka Samanic S 14 7 7 1
Kris Dunn 24 6 3 4
Talen Horton-Tucker 17 5 2 0
Walker Kessler 19 2 8 1
Brice Sensabaugh S 23 2 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luke Kornet · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Luke Kornet makes 4-foot layup (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 John Collins UTAH
14%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
5 Derrick White BOS
10%
6 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
9%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
9 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
34%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.3 6.9 6.3
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.5 2.8 5.9
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.8 3.9 5.9
4 Keyonte George UTAH 17.3 3.2 5.4
5 John Collins UTAH 15.9 10.0 1.7
6 Derrick White BOS 14.3 5.1 6.3
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.6 4.1 5.9
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.2 3.4 2.3
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.2 7.7 1.4
10 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.4 1.0
11 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.7 2.4 2.4
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 6.5 2.1 1.1
13 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.5 2.4 2.1
14 Luke Kornet BOS 5.6 4.3 1.0
15 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.1 3.8 1.2
16 Neemias Queta BOS 4.7 4.6 0.7
17 Jaden Springer BOS 3.9 2.4 1.1
18 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.8 2.7 1.2
19 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.7 2.0 0.6
20 Johnny Juzang UTAH 3.6 1.5 1.0
21 JD Davison BOS 3.5 1.6 1.5
22 Micah Potter UTAH 3.5 2.1 0.5
23 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.4 1.0 0.8
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.1 2.4 0.5
25 Kenneth Lofton Jr. UTAH 2.9 1.3 0.7
26 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.1 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.