NBA games

HOU @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
103–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU24203227103
SA30172529101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 39 21 7 7
Jalen Green S 37 16 7 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 15 9 1
Dillon Brooks S 30 14 1 1
Jock Landale 26 11 4 5
Aaron Holiday 11 8 1 0
Jeff Green 14 8 1 0
Amen Thompson S 23 6 4 2
Jae'Sean Tate 13 2 2 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 14 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 32 24 3 5
Jeremy Sochan S 32 21 8 2
Victor Wembanyama S 31 13 10 6
Blake Wesley 16 10 3 3
Julian Champagnie S 34 10 3 1
Zach Collins 16 7 2 1
Devin Vassell S 36 6 5 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 11 6 5 3
Malaki Branham 22 4 1 3
Devonte' Graham 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Jalen Green HOU
14%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
12%
5 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
6 Tre Jones SA
9%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
10 Malaki Branham SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.4 13.3 5.1
2 Devin Vassell SA 23.5 5.0 5.6
3 Jalen Green HOU 21.9 4.7 3.8
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.3 3.8 7.3
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.9 9.3 2.2
6 Malaki Branham SA 13.5 2.9 2.4
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.4 7.1 2.8
8 Zach Collins SA 11.3 4.9 2.5
9 Tre Jones SA 10.5 3.9 6.5
10 Amen Thompson HOU 8.9 6.1 1.6
11 Dillon Brooks HOU 8.3 3.3 1.8
12 Julian Champagnie SA 7.4 3.5 1.9
13 Dominick Barlow SA 6.8 4.6 1.2
14 Blake Wesley SA 5.3 2.3 2.4
15 Jeff Green HOU 4.6 1.8 1.0
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.3 1.2
17 Devonte' Graham SA 3.9 1.7 0.9
18 Jock Landale HOU 3.6 3.4 1.1
19 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.6 2.8 0.7
20 Nate Williams HOU 2.9 1.4 0.6
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.8 1.8 0.6
22 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.7 1.3 0.4
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.6 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.