NBA games

IND @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
121111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND22363627121
OKC17294124111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home OKC
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 30 24 3 4
Pascal Siakam S 32 18 11 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 18 4 12
Aaron Nesmith S 36 15 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 27 14 4 5
Obi Toppin 19 10 4 1
T.J. McConnell 17 9 0 4
Jalen Smith 18 6 9 3
Ben Sheppard 17 4 2 0
Jarace Walker 7 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 30 10 5
Luguentz Dort S 35 18 2 3
Josh Giddey S 28 15 7 3
Chet Holmgren S 35 15 13 3
Cason Wallace 23 11 3 0
Gordon Hayward S 30 9 4 5
Aaron Wiggins 15 7 2 0
Isaiah Joe 19 6 3 1
Kenrich Williams 9 0 4 2
Mike Muscala 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
14%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
14%
3 Myles Turner IND
13%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Obi Toppin IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
21%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.9 5.9 6.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.1 7.2 3.7
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 4.3 8.7
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.3 8.6 3.1
5 Myles Turner IND 17.5 7.8 1.4
6 Josh Giddey OKC 12.8 6.2 4.0
7 T.J. McConnell IND 11.5 3.6 4.8
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.2 3.3 1.4
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.9 3.3 1.5
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.3 3.1 2.8
11 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 3.9 1.1
12 Jalen Smith IND 7.0 4.4 0.9
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.8 2.9 1.6
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.7 4.1 0.7
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.4 2.4 1.1
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.1 2.8 1.1
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 2.1 0.8
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 3.5 1.3
19 Gordon Hayward OKC 4.6 2.7 1.6
20 Mike Muscala OKC 4.1 2.1 0.7
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.8 1.8 0.7
22 Jarace Walker IND 3.7 2.6 1.0
23 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.7 2.8 1.1
24 Bismack Biyombo OKC 3.7 3.9 1.0
25 Kendall Brown IND 1.3 0.6 0.2
26 James Johnson IND 1.0 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.