NBA games

WSH @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
97–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2121332297
MEM29382517109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MEM
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 37 24 7 5
Corey Kispert S 36 22 2 0
Deni Avdija S 36 16 4 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 32 11 5 4
Jordan Poole 27 10 3 4
Jared Butler 10 6 0 2
Tyus Jones S 34 4 0 9
Anthony Gill 4 2 1 0
Eugene Omoruyi 8 2 2 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 11 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Jemison III S 31 24 6 0
GG Jackson 27 19 2 1
Jake LaRavia 24 16 4 1
Luke Kennard S 26 13 4 8
Santi Aldama S 30 11 4 1
DeJon Jarreau 21 8 5 6
Jordan Goodwin S 32 8 12 7
Wenyen Gabriel 17 7 6 0
John Konchar S 33 3 10 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Jemison III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Trey Jemison makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
3 GG Jackson MEM
8%
4 Richaun Holmes WSH
8%
5 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
6 Jordan Goodwin MEM
7%
7 Jake LaRavia MEM
7%
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
48%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.4 7.7 4.5
2 Jordan Poole WSH 21.9 3.9 5.3
3 Deni Avdija WSH 20.0 9.8 3.7
4 GG Jackson MEM 16.1 4.4 1.7
5 Corey Kispert WSH 16.0 3.8 3.6
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 15.3 6.4 6.6
7 Luke Kennard MEM 13.0 2.6 3.3
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.9 5.9 2.9
9 Lamar Stevens MEM 11.5 5.1 1.4
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.7 3.9 2.0
11 Tyus Jones WSH 10.6 3.1 9.5
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.3 4.4 2.1
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.8 4.0 1.5
14 John Konchar MEM 7.5 5.0 2.3
15 Trey Jemison III MEM 6.8 5.2 1.3
16 Jordan Goodwin MEM 6.3 3.2 2.8
17 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.4 3.5 0.5
18 Wenyen Gabriel MEM 4.2 3.7 0.9
19 R.J. Hampton WSH 3.8 1.5 1.4
20 Johnny Davis WSH 3.7 2.3 0.8
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.7 2.3 0.7
22 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.4 1.9 0.6
23 Jared Butler WSH 3.2 0.8 1.5
24 Anthony Gill WSH 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.