Tuesday, March 12, 2024

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final

79–106

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PHI	14	27	20	18	79
NY	26	33	28	19	106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season

PHI away

home NY

30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Kelly Oubre Jr. S	30	19	6	1	7/15	3/6	-19
Tyrese Maxey S	28	17	2	4	6/14	3/6	-29
Paul Reed	28	14	8	0	6/8	0/1	-13
Buddy Hield	24	9	4	4	4/11	1/7	4
Cameron Payne	20	7	1	1	2/9	0/3	-21
Mo Bamba S	17	5	2	0	2/3	1/1	-13
Ricky Council IV	6	4	0	0	1/3	0/0	2
Tobias Harris S	26	2	3	1	1/6	0/2	-20
Kyle Lowry S	21	2	2	6	1/4	0/3	-16
Jeff Dowtin Jr.	8	0	1	0	0/1	0/1	-2

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Josh Hart S	39	20	19	10	8/16	1/6	32
Jalen Brunson S	27	20	4	9	7/12	4/8	24
Donte DiVincenzo S	34	16	2	4	4/11	4/9	32
OG Anunoby S	29	14	4	2	6/11	2/5	28
Miles McBride	23	13	2	2	5/8	3/5	5
Precious Achiuwa	24	13	8	1	6/8	0/1	13
Isaiah Hartenstein S	20	6	5	2	3/3	0/0	17
Alec Burks	12	2	2	1	1/6	0/4	-7
Shake Milton	4	2	0	0	0/2	0/1	-3
Bojan Bogdanovic	22	0	2	1	0/2	0/1	-4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Josh Hart · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1

"Josh Hart makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Donte DiVincenzo NY

11%

2 Jalen Brunson NY

11%

3 Tyrese Maxey PHI

10%

4 OG Anunoby NY

5 Josh Hart NY

6 Tobias Harris PHI

7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI

8 Isaiah Hartenstein NY

9 Cameron Payne PHI

10 Precious Achiuwa NY

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

31%

Dunk

Free Throw

16%

Jumper

38%

Layup

13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Jalen Brunson	NY	24.2	3.3	6.6	20	4	9
2	Tyrese Maxey	PHI	23.3	4.5	5.5	17	2	4
3	OG Anunoby	NY	17.2	4.8	2.0	14	4	2
4	Donte DiVincenzo	NY	17.1	5.2	4.0	16	2	4
5	Kelly Oubre Jr.	PHI	16.1	5.4	2.3	19	6	1
6	Tobias Harris	PHI	15.7	7.3	2.4	2	3	1
7	Josh Hart	NY	13.9	11.6	6.4	20	19	10
8	Precious Achiuwa	NY	12.9	9.6	2.0	13	8	1
9	Bojan Bogdanovic	NY	12.7	2.9	1.6	0	2	1
10	Buddy Hield	PHI	11.5	3.4	3.4	9	4	4
11	Miles McBride	NY	10.0	2.2	2.6	13	2	2
12	Paul Reed	PHI	9.9	7.3	1.4	14	8	0
13	Cameron Payne	PHI	9.0	2.0	2.5	7	1	1
14	Kyle Lowry	PHI	8.3	2.9	4.7	2	2	6
15	Isaiah Hartenstein	NY	7.6	6.9	2.9	6	5	2
16	Mitchell Robinson	NY	7.3	8.5	1.3	—	—	—
17	Jericho Sims	NY	6.1	6.4	1.4	0	3	0
18	Nicolas Batum	PHI	6.0	4.4	1.6	0	2	0
19	Alec Burks	NY	6.0	1.7	0.8	2	2	1
20	KJ Martin	PHI	5.4	3.5	0.9	0	0	0
21	Jeff Dowtin Jr.	PHI	5.2	1.4	1.9	0	1	0
22	Ricky Council IV	PHI	5.2	2.6	0.6	4	0	0
23	Shake Milton	NY	4.6	2.3	1.3	2	0	0
24	Mo Bamba	PHI	4.0	3.7	0.8	5	2	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.