NBA games

BOS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
121–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS37292233121
POR2824232499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home POR
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 27 6 5
Jayson Tatum S 36 26 5 8
Sam Hauser 32 22 2 0
Al Horford S 30 11 4 4
Derrick White S 34 11 6 5
Payton Pritchard S 30 11 8 8
Luke Kornet 21 6 5 2
Oshae Brissett 19 3 7 1
JD Davison 2 3 1 0
Neemias Queta 2 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 33 22 15 1
Anfernee Simons S 34 17 4 3
Jerami Grant S 36 14 2 2
Scoot Henderson S 33 13 6 8
Dalano Banton 22 8 2 4
Duop Reath 13 8 1 0
Toumani Camara 25 8 1 2
Matisse Thybulle 22 5 3 1
Kris Murray S 19 2 4 1
Moses Brown 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Payton Pritchard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Payton Pritchard makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Dalano Banton POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Kris Murray POR
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
35%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.2 5.6 4.1
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.2 6.8 6.0
3 Anfernee Simons POR 23.6 4.0 6.3
4 Jerami Grant POR 21.4 3.5 4.4
5 Deandre Ayton POR 17.6 11.5 2.2
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.5 2.8 4.5
7 Derrick White BOS 14.7 4.6 5.9
8 Dalano Banton POR 13.6 4.5 2.4
9 Toumani Camara POR 10.7 5.5 1.8
10 Duop Reath POR 10.5 4.0 1.2
11 Shaedon Sharpe POR 9.6 3.6 1.5
12 Kris Murray POR 9.4 5.0 2.3
13 Al Horford BOS 8.6 5.8 1.5
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.0 2.8 1.6
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.5 3.0 1.7
16 Sam Hauser BOS 5.5 2.9 0.8
17 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.3 3.5 1.3
18 Rayan Rupert POR 4.8 2.1 1.0
19 Luke Kornet BOS 4.7 3.2 0.7
20 Jaden Springer BOS 3.3 1.7 0.9
21 JD Davison BOS 3.0 1.4 1.5
22 Moses Brown POR 3.0 4.4 0.5
23 Neemias Queta BOS 2.9 3.2 0.3
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.4 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.