NBA games

TOR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
119–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR34343021119
DEN32194232125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DEN
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 38 26 7 9
Kelly Olynyk S 29 24 6 1
Gradey Dick S 36 17 4 7
Jontay Porter 22 14 2 5
Bruce Brown S 38 13 10 3
Jalen McDaniels 19 12 3 1
Ochai Agbaji S 29 8 2 1
Jordan Nwora 17 5 7 1
Javon Freeman-Liberty 12 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 35 17 12
Jamal Murray S 39 26 5 12
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 19 8 3
Aaron Gordon S 31 19 2 1
Reggie Jackson 15 9 1 0
Peyton Watson 15 7 5 0
Christian Braun 19 5 2 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 3 2 6
Zeke Nnaji 9 2 0 0
Justin Holiday 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
14%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
9%
8 Kelly Olynyk TOR
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
23%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.9 12.9 10.6
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.5 4.5 6.7
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.6 5.4 4.1
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 21.0 7.3 2.4
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.7 7.0 4.6
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 14.8 4.0 1.9
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.9 3.1 2.4
8 Kelly Olynyk TOR 10.2 4.3 3.6
9 Gradey Dick TOR 9.7 3.0 1.2
10 Bruce Brown TOR 7.0 2.5 1.6
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.0 2.1 3.1
12 Christian Braun DEN 7.0 4.3 1.5
13 Peyton Watson DEN 7.0 3.8 1.3
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.0 2.7 1.0
15 Justin Holiday DEN 5.8 2.1 1.7
16 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 5.0 2.4 0.9
17 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.2 2.1 0.8
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.1 3.3 0.7
19 Julian Strawther DEN 3.7 1.5 0.9
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.4 2.0 0.8
21 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.4 0.9 0.7
22 Jay Huff DEN 3.3 1.6 0.7
23 Jontay Porter TOR 2.8 2.1 0.8
24 Markquis Nowell TOR 2.6 1.4 1.5
25 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 2.9 0.3
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.