NBA games

GS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
112–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS29293222112
SA37231824102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 31 22 5 1
Klay Thompson S 30 21 2 2
Chris Paul S 33 19 9 8
Andrew Wiggins S 30 16 4 2
Brandin Podziemski 35 14 8 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 26 13 10 5
Draymond Green S 28 5 6 4
Moses Moody 12 2 1 0
Gary Payton II 15 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 27 14 3
Devin Vassell S 37 17 1 1
Keldon Johnson 30 16 6 1
Zach Collins 17 10 10 3
Julian Champagnie S 28 9 2 2
Jeremy Sochan S 28 9 7 7
Tre Jones S 32 6 5 7
Blake Wesley 13 4 1 3
Dominick Barlow 7 2 3 0
Malaki Branham 17 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
3 Devin Vassell SA
10%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
5 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
6 Malaki Branham SA
7%
7 Zach Collins SA
7%
8 Tre Jones SA
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
36%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.7 12.3 5.1
2 Devin Vassell SA 23.1 5.1 6.2
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.2 6.2 3.3
4 Klay Thompson GS 15.6 3.3 2.4
5 Malaki Branham SA 15.0 2.8 2.6
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.8 3.9 2.4
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.4 4.1 2.4
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.9 6.7 2.5
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.7 5.5 4.8
10 Chris Paul GS 10.3 3.6 5.9
11 Tre Jones SA 10.1 3.8 6.2
12 Zach Collins SA 10.1 4.9 2.6
13 Draymond Green GS 10.0 8.1 5.5
14 Moses Moody GS 8.6 4.0 1.0
15 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.2 5.3 1.0
16 Dominick Barlow SA 7.2 4.8 1.4
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.4 3.4 1.7
18 Lester Quinones GS 5.5 2.4 0.9
19 Blake Wesley SA 5.5 2.0 2.9
20 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 2.9 1.1
21 Dario Saric GS 4.1 2.1 1.9
22 Devonte' Graham SA 3.9 1.7 0.9
23 Jerome Robinson GS 3.0 1.3 0.7
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.9 1.7 0.7
25 Kevon Looney GS 2.5 2.9 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.